Using Decision Tree Analysis in Litigation and Mediation

July 15, 2021

Misuse of Probability in Decision Tree Analysis: Avoiding Garbage In, Garbage Out

Josh Fruchter
During our June 23 webinar on decision tree analysis, an attendee shared having heard complaints that decision tree analysis is unfair to plaintiffs because the multiple probabilities in the tree whittle down their expected damages. However, it’s only when the “whittling down” results from misuse of the rules of probability..
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July 5, 2021

Why Sunk Costs Are Irrelevant to Decision Tree Analysis in Mediation

Josh Fruchter
At our June 23, 2021 webinar on decision tree analysis, we examined how to calculate the expected value (EV) of a lawsuit using a decision tree in connection with a mediation or settlement negotiations. We also discussed that once an EV is calculated, plaintiffs should subtract from EV the anticipated..
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May 20, 2021

Free Webinar for Litigators and Mediators: June 23: Using Decision Tree Analysis To Value Lawsuits and Negotiate Settlements

Josh Fruchter
We are pleased to announce a free webinar for litigators and mediators on Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 12:30 PM EST entitled “Using Decision Tree Analysis To Value Lawsuits and Negotiate Settlements.” An application for NYCLE-accreditation for one (1) credit in the area of Professional Practice is currently pending. The..
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October 16, 2019

Mediation Lessons from the Talmud: The Endowment Effect and Its Impact on Settlement Negotiations

Josh Fruchter
In this latest post applying Talmudic principles in mediation, we discuss a psychological principle known as the “endowment effect” and its impact on negotiations during mediation (the Talmud being an ancient Jewish legal text compiled around 500 C.E. that is a primary source of Jewish law and philosophy). Our Psychological..
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September 23, 2019

Revisiting the Insurer’s Decision Tree Analysis Discussed in Last Tuesday’s Blog Post

Josh Fruchter
Last Tuesday, we published a blog post discussing how a flawed decision tree analysis led an insurer defending a wrongful death action to reject reasonable settlement offers, and then get hit with a nearly $40 million verdict and a $7.2 million judgment for breaching a Texas state law duty to..
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September 17, 2019

Insurer That Relied On Flawed Decision Tree Analysis Hit With $7.2M Judgment For Rejecting Settlement Offers After Failed Mediation

Josh Fruchter
The dynamic present in personal injury mediations is fairly straightforward. The defendant’s insurer (or the defendant, if self-insured) will estimate the risk of a jury verdict for the plaintiff on liability, and discount the likely damages by that risk to determine a reasonable settlement range. On the other side of..
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